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FUS Rabat vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
FT
0 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
11/29/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 9Stade du FUS (Hay Nahda) (Rabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FUS Rabat58%
×Draw25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FUS Rabat
1.59
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.71

FUS Rabat creates 124% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

FUS Rabat
1.26
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

FUS Rabat
0.88
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw
83%
FUS Rabat or Chabab RIF Hoceima
75%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
42%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+
32%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals
80%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
47%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
21%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
51%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
16%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
78%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FUS Rabat scores more
58%
level
25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
17%

FUS Rabat at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FUS Rabat 0 – 0 Chabab RIF Hoceima

FUS Rabat and Chabab RIF Hoceima drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on November 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du FUS (Hay Nahda) (Rabat).