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Fürstenfeld vs UFC Fehring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Fürstenfeld
Fürstenfeld
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
UFC Fehring
UFC Fehring
6/6/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Rudolf-Gutmann-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fürstenfeld51%
×Draw21%
UFC Fehring28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fürstenfeld
2.06
UFC Fehring
1.48

Fürstenfeld creates 39% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

creates per match

Fürstenfeld
2.07
UFC Fehring
1.50

allows per match

Fürstenfeld
1.45
UFC Fehring
2.05

finishing

Fürstenfeld+0.00on par
UFC Fehring+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fürstenfeld ↓

UFC Fehring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fürstenfeld or draw
72%
Fürstenfeld or UFC Fehring
79%
Draw or UFC Fehring
49%

Winning margin

Fürstenfeld wins by 2+
30%
UFC Fehring wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fürstenfeld 1+ goals
87%
Fürstenfeld 2+ goals
61%
Fürstenfeld 3+ goals
34%
UFC Fehring 1+ goals
77%
UFC Fehring 2+ goals
43%
UFC Fehring 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fürstenfeld (draw refunded)
65%
UFC Fehring (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fürstenfeld at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.45 · 89 matches

UFC Fehring away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fürstenfeld attack 2.07 + UFC Fehring defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.06

UFC Fehring attack 1.50 + Fürstenfeld defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fürstenfeld scores more
51%
level
21%
UFC Fehring scores more
28%

Fürstenfeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fürstenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Fürstenfeld 4–2 UFC Fehring

Fürstenfeld beat UFC Fehring 4-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at Rudolf-Gutmann-Stadion in Fürstenfeld.