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Fürstenfeld vs Schladming — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Fürstenfeld
Fürstenfeld
FT
1 – 3
Schladming
Schladming
3/8/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 16Rudolf-Gutmann-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fürstenfeld51%
×Draw22%
Schladming27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fürstenfeld
1.96
Schladming
1.38

Fürstenfeld creates 42% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

creates per match

Fürstenfeld
2.07
Schladming
1.31

allows per match

Fürstenfeld
1.45
Schladming
1.84

finishing

Fürstenfeld+0.00on par
Schladming+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fürstenfeld ↓

Schladming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fürstenfeld or draw
73%
Fürstenfeld or Schladming
78%
Draw or Schladming
49%

Winning margin

Fürstenfeld wins by 2+
29%
Schladming wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fürstenfeld 1+ goals
86%
Fürstenfeld 2+ goals
58%
Fürstenfeld 3+ goals
31%
Schladming 1+ goals
75%
Schladming 2+ goals
40%
Schladming 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fürstenfeld (draw refunded)
65%
Schladming (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fürstenfeld at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.45 · 89 matches

Schladming away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fürstenfeld attack 2.07 + Schladming defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.96

Schladming attack 1.31 + Fürstenfeld defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fürstenfeld scores more
51%
level
22%
Schladming scores more
27%

Fürstenfeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fürstenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Fürstenfeld 1–3 Schladming

Schladming beat Fürstenfeld 3-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Rudolf-Gutmann-Stadion in Fürstenfeld.