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Fürstenfeld vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Fürstenfeld
Fürstenfeld
FT
2 – 0
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
8/28/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 1Rudolf-Gutmann-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fürstenfeld64%
×Draw18%
Hitthaller St. Michael18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fürstenfeld
2.48
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.26

Fürstenfeld creates 97% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fürstenfeld
2.07
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

Fürstenfeld
1.45
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

Fürstenfeld+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fürstenfeld ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fürstenfeld or draw
82%
Fürstenfeld or Hitthaller St. Michael
82%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
36%

Winning margin

Fürstenfeld wins by 2+
42%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fürstenfeld 1+ goals
92%
Fürstenfeld 2+ goals
70%
Fürstenfeld 3+ goals
44%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
72%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
36%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fürstenfeld (draw refunded)
78%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fürstenfeld at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.45 · 89 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fürstenfeld attack 2.07 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.48

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Fürstenfeld defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Fürstenfeld scores more
64%
level
18%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
18%

Fürstenfeld at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fürstenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Fürstenfeld 2–0 Hitthaller St. Michael

Fürstenfeld beat Hitthaller St. Michael 2-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 28, 2020.

The match was played at Rudolf-Gutmann-Stadion in Fürstenfeld.