Fürstenfeld 0–6 Grazer AK: Result & Stats

Fürstenfeld

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Grazer AK

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3JUFA Fürstenfeld Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fürstenfeld32%

×Draw19%

Grazer AK49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FürstenfeldExpected goals in this matchGrazer AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

2.54

Fürstenfeld

2.05

Grazer AK

2.54

Grazer AK creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.40

creates per match

2.29

2.80

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Fürstenfeld

2.40

Grazer AK

2.29

allows per match

Fürstenfeld

2.80

Grazer AK

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fürstenfeld+0.00on par

Grazer AK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fürstenfeld ↓

Grazer AK →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Fürstenfeld or draw

51%

Fürstenfeld or Grazer AK

81%

Draw or Grazer AK

68%

Winning margin

Fürstenfeld wins by 2+

17%

Grazer AK wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Fürstenfeld 1+ goals

87%

Fürstenfeld 2+ goals

61%

Fürstenfeld 3+ goals

33%

Grazer AK 1+ goals

92%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

72%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Fürstenfeld (draw refunded)

40%

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fürstenfeld at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fürstenfeld attack 2.40 + Grazer AK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Grazer AK attack 2.29 + Fürstenfeld defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fürstenfeld scores more

32%

level

19%

Grazer AK scores more

49%

Grazer AK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff