Fursan Hispania 0–6 Emirates Club: Result & Stats

Fursan Hispania

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Emirates Club

1/14/2023

Division 1 · Round 17The Sevens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania17%

×Draw20%

Emirates Club64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fursan HispaniaExpected goals in this matchEmirates Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.20

Fursan Hispania

1.02

Emirates Club

2.20

Emirates Club creates 116% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

0.81

creates per match

1.77

2.63

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Fursan Hispania

0.81

Emirates Club

1.77

allows per match

Fursan Hispania

2.63

Emirates Club

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Emirates Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Emirates Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw

36%

Fursan Hispania or Emirates Club

80%

Draw or Emirates Club

83%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

6%

Emirates Club wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

64%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

27%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

8%

Emirates Club 1+ goals

89%

Emirates Club 2+ goals

64%

Emirates Club 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

21%

Emirates Club (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Emirates Club away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Emirates Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Emirates Club attack 1.77 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more

17%

level

20%

Emirates Club scores more

64%

Emirates Club at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Emirates Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff