Fursan Hispania 0–1 Al Ramms: Result & Stats

Fursan Hispania

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Ramms

11/25/2022

Division 1 · Round 12Shabab Al Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania33%

×Draw23%

Al Ramms45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fursan HispaniaExpected goals in this matchAl Ramms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.79

Fursan Hispania

1.50

Al Ramms

1.79

Al Ramms creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 43 away

0.81

creates per match

0.95

2.63

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Fursan Hispania

0.81

Al Ramms

0.95

allows per match

Fursan Hispania

2.63

Al Ramms

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Al Ramms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw

55%

Fursan Hispania or Al Ramms

77%

Draw or Al Ramms

67%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

15%

Al Ramms wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

78%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

44%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

19%

Al Ramms 1+ goals

83%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

53%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

42%

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more

33%

level

23%

Al Ramms scores more

45%

Al Ramms at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Ramms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff