Funnefoss / Vormsund 1–0 Spjelkavik: Result & Stats

Funnefoss / Vormsund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spjelkavik

M. Rismoen 48'

9/28/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 23Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund30%

×Draw23%

Spjelkavik47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Funnefoss / VormsundExpected goals in this matchSpjelkavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.86

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.46

Spjelkavik

1.86

Spjelkavik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.23

creates per match

2.11

1.62

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.23

Spjelkavik

2.11

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.62

Spjelkavik

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Spjelkavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Spjelkavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw

53%

Funnefoss / Vormsund or Spjelkavik

77%

Draw or Spjelkavik

70%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

14%

Spjelkavik wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

77%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

43%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

18%

Spjelkavik 1+ goals

84%

Spjelkavik 2+ goals

55%

Spjelkavik 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

39%

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Spjelkavik away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.23 + Spjelkavik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Spjelkavik attack 2.11 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

30%

level

23%

Spjelkavik scores more

47%

Spjelkavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

M. Rismoen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff