Funnefoss / Vormsund 2–0 Skjervøy: Result & Stats

Funnefoss / Vormsund

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Skjervøy

M. Rismoen 76'

T. Holmestad 63'

10/2/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 23Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund55%

×Draw19%

Skjervøy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Funnefoss / VormsundExpected goals in this matchSkjervøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.67

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.48

Skjervøy

1.67

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

2.46

creates per match

1.65

1.69

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.46

Skjervøy

1.65

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.69

Skjervøy

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Skjervøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw

74%

Funnefoss / Vormsund or Skjervøy

81%

Draw or Skjervøy

45%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

35%

Skjervøy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

92%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

70%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

44%

Skjervøy 1+ goals

81%

Skjervøy 2+ goals

50%

Skjervøy 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

68%

Skjervøy (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 2.46 + Skjervøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Skjervøy attack 1.65 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

55%

level

19%

Skjervøy scores more

26%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

T. Holmestad

76'

M. Rismoen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff