Funnefoss / Vormsund 0–2 Lokomotiv Oslo

Funnefoss / Vormsund

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Oslo

U. Bjerke 80'

E. Storseth 29'

9/14/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 21Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund32%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv Oslo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Funnefoss / VormsundExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.70

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.39

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.70

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.23

creates per match

1.77

1.62

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.23

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.77

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.62

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw

55%

Funnefoss / Vormsund or Lokomotiv Oslo

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo

68%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

14%

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

75%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

40%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

16%

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals

82%

Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals

51%

Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

41%

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.23 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.77 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

32%

level

24%

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more

45%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

E. Storseth

80'

U. Bjerke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff