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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
T. S. Karlsen 90'
H. H. Fosvold 85'
A. Fjaervik 90'
F. Hoel 70'
4/22/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 3Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund45%
×Draw23%
Kristiansund II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.79
Kristiansund II
1.50

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.23
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.62
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
67%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Kristiansund II
77%
Draw or Kristiansund II
55%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
24%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
83%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
53%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
26%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
78%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
44%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
58%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.23 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
45%
level
23%
Kristiansund II scores more
33%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
F. Hoel
73'
J. Korslund
85'
H. H. Fosvold
90'
T. S. Karlsen
90'
A. Fjaervik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Kristiansund II

Funnefoss / Vormsund and Kristiansund II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 22, 2024.

Goals: F. Hoel (70'), H. H. Fosvold (85'), T. S. Karlsen (90'), A. Fjaervik (90').

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.