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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs IF Ready — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
IF Ready
IF Ready
T. S. Karlsen 90+3'
F. Nielsen 89'
T. L. Steeneveldt D. 90+5', 90', 86'
A. Engebretsen 52'
7/27/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 14Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund34%
×Draw23%
IF Ready43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.54
IF Ready
1.77

IF Ready creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.23
IF Ready
1.92

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.62
IF Ready
1.85

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
IF Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

IF Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
57%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or IF Ready
77%
Draw or IF Ready
66%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
16%
IF Ready wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
79%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
45%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
20%
IF Ready 1+ goals
83%
IF Ready 2+ goals
53%
IF Ready 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
44%
IF Ready (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

IF Ready away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.23 + IF Ready defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

IF Ready attack 1.92 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
34%
level
23%
IF Ready scores more
43%

IF Ready at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IF Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
A. Engebretsen
86'
T. L. Steeneveldt D.
89'
F. Nielsen
90'
T. L. Steeneveldt D.
90+3'
T. S. Karlsen
90+5'
T. L. Steeneveldt D.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs IF Ready

IF Ready beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Engebretsen (52'), T. L. Steeneveldt D. (86', 90', 90+5'), F. Nielsen (89'), T. S. Karlsen (90+3').

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.