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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Frigg
Frigg
I. Veiby 20'
B. Rio-Moe 89'
U. Ferrer 81'
M. Kvinnesland 75'
S. Barane 71'
10/18/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 25Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund24%
×Draw19%
Frigg57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.67
Frigg
2.58

Frigg creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.63
Frigg
2.94

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.21
Frigg
1.71

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
43%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Frigg
81%
Draw or Frigg
76%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
11%
Frigg wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
81%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
50%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
23%
Frigg 1+ goals
92%
Frigg 2+ goals
72%
Frigg 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
30%
Frigg (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

Frigg away — creates 2.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.63 + Frigg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Frigg attack 2.94 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
24%
level
19%
Frigg scores more
57%

Frigg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
I. Veiby
71'
S. Barane
75'
M. Kvinnesland
81'
U. Ferrer
89'
B. Rio-Moe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Frigg

Frigg beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: I. Veiby (20'), S. Barane (71'), M. Kvinnesland (75'), U. Ferrer (81'), B. Rio-Moe (89').

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.