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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Fløya
Fløya
7/31/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 14Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund42%
×Draw21%
Fløya36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.00
Fløya
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.46
Fløya
2.00

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.69
Fløya
1.54

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
64%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Fløya
79%
Draw or Fløya
58%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
23%
Fløya wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
86%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
59%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
32%
Fløya 1+ goals
84%
Fløya 2+ goals
55%
Fløya 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
54%
Fløya (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 2.46 + Fløya defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fløya attack 2.00 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
42%
level
21%
Fløya scores more
36%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Fløya

Funnefoss / Vormsund and Fløya drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.