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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Elverum — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
0 – 1
Elverum
Elverum
8/7/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 1Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund24%
×Draw22%
Elverum54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.23
Elverum
1.94

Elverum creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.63
Elverum
1.67

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.21
Elverum
0.83

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Elverum+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Elverum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
46%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Elverum
78%
Draw or Elverum
76%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
10%
Elverum wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
71%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
35%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
13%
Elverum 1+ goals
86%
Elverum 2+ goals
58%
Elverum 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
31%
Elverum (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

Elverum away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.63 + Elverum defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Elverum attack 1.67 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
24%
level
22%
Elverum scores more
54%

Elverum at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Elverum

Elverum beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.