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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
M. Rismoen 14'
R. Warholm 37'
9/3/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 19Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund31%
×Draw23%
Aalesund II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.39
Aalesund II
1.74

Aalesund II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.23
Aalesund II
1.85

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.62
Aalesund II
1.55

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
54%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Aalesund II
77%
Draw or Aalesund II
69%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
14%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
75%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
40%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
16%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
52%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
40%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.23 + Aalesund II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aalesund II attack 1.85 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
31%
level
23%
Aalesund II scores more
46%

Aalesund II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Rismoen
37'
R. Warholm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Funnefoss / Vormsund 1–1 Aalesund II

Funnefoss / Vormsund and Aalesund II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 3, 2024.

Goals: M. Rismoen (14'), R. Warholm (37').

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.