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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
PST
20:00
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
6/20/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva41%
×Draw26%
Yaracuy FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.40
Yaracuy FC
1.21

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 47 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
68%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Yaracuy FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
59%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
19%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
75%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
41%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
17%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
70%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
34%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
56%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
41%
level
26%
Yaracuy FC scores more
32%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fundación Lara Deportiva face Yaracuy FC (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Fundación Lara Deportiva hosting Yaracuy FC. Match starts June 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fundación Lara Deportiva host Yaracuy FC at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.