Fundación Lara Deportiva 3–4 Real Frontera

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Real Frontera

9/17/2023

Segunda División · Clausura - 12Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva46%

×Draw25%

Real Frontera29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchReal Frontera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.20

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.56

Real Frontera

1.20

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 105 away

1.45

creates per match

1.29

1.11

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.45

Real Frontera

1.29

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.11

Real Frontera

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Real Frontera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

71%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or Real Frontera

75%

Draw or Real Frontera

54%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

23%

Real Frontera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

79%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

46%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

21%

Real Frontera 1+ goals

70%

Real Frontera 2+ goals

34%

Real Frontera 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

61%

Real Frontera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

46%

level

25%

Real Frontera scores more

29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff