Fundación Lara Deportiva 4–0 Héroes de Falcón

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Héroes de Falcón

6/18/2025

Copa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group EEstadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva72%

×Draw16%

Héroes de Falcón12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchHéroes de Falcón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

0.95

Fundación Lara Deportiva

2.61

Héroes de Falcón

0.95

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 175% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.60

1.29

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.43

Héroes de Falcón

0.60

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.29

Héroes de Falcón

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Héroes de Falcón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

88%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or Héroes de Falcón

84%

Draw or Héroes de Falcón

28%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

51%

Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

93%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

73%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

47%

Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals

61%

Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals

25%

Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

86%

Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Héroes de Falcón away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.43 + Héroes de Falcón defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.61

Héroes de Falcón attack 0.60 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

72%

level

16%

Héroes de Falcón scores more

12%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff