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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Héroes de Falcón — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Héroes de Falcón
Héroes de Falcón
9/6/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva49%
×Draw26%
Héroes de Falcón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.49
Héroes de Falcón
0.99

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 51% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Héroes de Falcón
0.87

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Héroes de Falcón
1.53

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Héroes de Falcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
75%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Héroes de Falcón
74%
Draw or Héroes de Falcón
51%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
24%
Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
77%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
44%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
19%
Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals
63%
Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals
26%
Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
66%
Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Héroes de Falcón away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Héroes de Falcón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Héroes de Falcón attack 0.87 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
49%
level
26%
Héroes de Falcón scores more
25%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundación Lara Deportiva 1–3 Héroes de Falcón

Héroes de Falcón beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 3-1 in Segunda División on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.