Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–1 Deportivo Lara

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Lara

5/30/2026

Segunda División · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva36%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Lara37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Lara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.23

Deportivo Lara

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 8 away

1.45

creates per match

1.38

1.11

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.45

Deportivo Lara

1.38

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.11

Deportivo Lara

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Deportivo Lara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

63%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or Deportivo Lara

73%

Draw or Deportivo Lara

64%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

71%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

35%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Lara 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Lara 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

49%

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Deportivo Lara away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Deportivo Lara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Lara attack 1.38 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

36%

level

27%

Deportivo Lara scores more

37%

Deportivo Lara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Lara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff