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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Club Atletico Barinas — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Club Atletico Barinas
Club Atletico Barinas
3/21/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva46%
×Draw24%
Club Atletico Barinas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.67
Club Atletico Barinas
1.31

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 27% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Club Atletico Barinas
1.50

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Club Atletico Barinas
1.88

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Club Atletico Barinas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Club Atletico Barinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
70%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Club Atletico Barinas
76%
Draw or Club Atletico Barinas
54%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
24%
Club Atletico Barinas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
81%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
50%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
23%
Club Atletico Barinas 1+ goals
73%
Club Atletico Barinas 2+ goals
38%
Club Atletico Barinas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
60%
Club Atletico Barinas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Club Atletico Barinas away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Club Atletico Barinas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Club Atletico Barinas attack 1.50 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
46%
level
24%
Club Atletico Barinas scores more
30%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Club Atletico Barinas

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Club Atletico Barinas 2-1 in Segunda División on March 21, 2026.