Fundacion Albacete W 0–2 Rayo Vallecano W

Fundacion Albacete W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Vallecano W

4/1/2017

Primera División Femenina · Primera Division Women - Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fundacion Albacete W42%

×Draw24%

Rayo Vallecano W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundacion Albacete WExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.50

Fundacion Albacete W

1.66

Rayo Vallecano W

1.50

Fundacion Albacete W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 58 away

1.21

creates per match

0.81

2.18

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Fundacion Albacete W

1.21

Rayo Vallecano W

0.81

allows per match

Fundacion Albacete W

2.18

Rayo Vallecano W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion Albacete W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Fundacion Albacete W or draw

65%

Fundacion Albacete W or Rayo Vallecano W

76%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano W

58%

Winning margin

Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+

21%

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals

81%

Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals

49%

Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals

23%

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

78%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

44%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)

54%

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion Albacete W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.21 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fundacion Albacete W scores more

42%

level

24%

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

35%

Fundacion Albacete W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fundacion Albacete W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff