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Fundacion Albacete W vs Levante W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Fundacion Albacete W
Fundacion Albacete W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levante W
Levante W
11/11/2017Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Primera Division Women - Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fundacion Albacete W26%
×Draw23%
Levante W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion Albacete W
1.27
Levante W
1.87

Levante W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 121 away

creates per match

Fundacion Albacete W
1.21
Levante W
1.55

allows per match

Fundacion Albacete W
2.18
Levante W
1.33

finishing

Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par
Levante W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion Albacete W ↓

Levante W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fundacion Albacete W or draw
49%
Fundacion Albacete W or Levante W
77%
Draw or Levante W
74%

Winning margin

Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+
11%
Levante W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals
72%
Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals
36%
Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals
14%
Levante W 1+ goals
85%
Levante W 2+ goals
56%
Levante W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)
34%
Levante W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion Albacete W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Levante W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.21 + Levante W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Levante W attack 1.55 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fundacion Albacete W scores more
26%
level
23%
Levante W scores more
51%

Levante W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Levante W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fundacion Albacete W vs Levante W

Fundacion Albacete W beat Levante W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 11, 2017.