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Fundacion AIFI vs Urena SC — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Urena SC
Urena SCadvanced
10/8/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - Quarter-finalsCTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fundacion AIFI40%
×Draw27%
Urena SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.31
Urena SC
1.15

Fundacion AIFI creates 14% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 115 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Urena SC
1.28

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Urena SC
1.57

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Urena SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
67%
Fundacion AIFI or Urena SC
73%
Draw or Urena SC
60%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
18%
Urena SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
73%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
38%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
14%
Urena SC 1+ goals
68%
Urena SC 2+ goals
32%
Urena SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
55%
Urena SC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Urena SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.57 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Urena SC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Urena SC attack 1.28 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
40%
level
27%
Urena SC scores more
33%

Fundacion AIFI at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundacion AIFI 0–1 Urena SC

Urena SC beat Fundacion AIFI 1-0 in Segunda División on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.