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Fundacion AIFI vs Real Frontera — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Frontera
Real Frontera
10/20/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Play-offEstadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fundacion AIFI41%
×Draw27%
Real Frontera32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.36
Real Frontera
1.16

Fundacion AIFI creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 105 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Real Frontera
1.29

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Real Frontera
1.67

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Real Frontera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
68%
Fundacion AIFI or Real Frontera
73%
Draw or Real Frontera
59%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
19%
Real Frontera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
74%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
39%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
16%
Real Frontera 1+ goals
69%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
32%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
56%
Real Frontera (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
41%
level
27%
Real Frontera scores more
32%

Fundacion AIFI at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundacion AIFI 2–1 Real Frontera

Fundacion AIFI beat Real Frontera 2-1 in Segunda División on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.