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Fundacion AIFI vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Petare FC
Petare FC
8/7/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 17CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fundacion AIFI38%
×Draw31%
Petare FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.07
Petare FC
0.93

Fundacion AIFI creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 102 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
69%
Fundacion AIFI or Petare FC
69%
Draw or Petare FC
62%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
15%
Petare FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
66%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
29%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
9%
Petare FC 1+ goals
61%
Petare FC 2+ goals
24%
Petare FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
55%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
38%
level
31%
Petare FC scores more
31%

Fundacion AIFI at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fundacion AIFI vs Petare FC

Fundacion AIFI beat Petare FC 2-1 in Segunda División on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.