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Fundacion AIFI vs Diamantes de Guayana — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
1 – 0
Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayana
9/14/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 8CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fundacion AIFI40%
×Draw28%
Diamantes de Guayana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.22
Diamantes de Guayana
1.06

Fundacion AIFI creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Diamantes de Guayana
1.09

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Diamantes de Guayana
1.38

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Diamantes de Guayana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
68%
Fundacion AIFI or Diamantes de Guayana
72%
Draw or Diamantes de Guayana
60%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
17%
Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
70%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
34%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
12%
Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
65%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
29%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
56%
Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Diamantes de Guayana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.09 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
40%
level
28%
Diamantes de Guayana scores more
32%

Fundacion AIFI at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fundacion AIFI vs Diamantes de Guayana

Fundacion AIFI beat Diamantes de Guayana 1-0 in Segunda División on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).