Fulham W 1–9 Portsmouth W: Result & Stats

Fulham W

1 – 9

Portsmouth W

11/12/2023

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMotspur Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fulham W20%

×Draw16%

Portsmouth W65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham WExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

3.31

Fulham W

1.84

Portsmouth W

3.31

Portsmouth W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.83

creates per match

3.29

3.33

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Fulham W

2.83

Portsmouth W

3.29

allows per match

Fulham W

3.33

Portsmouth W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham W+0.00on par

Portsmouth W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham W ↓

Portsmouth W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Fulham W or draw

35%

Fulham W or Portsmouth W

84%

Draw or Portsmouth W

80%

Winning margin

Fulham W wins by 2+

Portsmouth W wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Fulham W 1+ goals

84%

Fulham W 2+ goals

55%

Fulham W 3+ goals

28%

Portsmouth W 1+ goals

96%

Portsmouth W 2+ goals

83%

Portsmouth W 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Fulham W (draw refunded)

23%

Portsmouth W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fulham W at home — creates 2.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Portsmouth W away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fulham W attack 2.83 + Portsmouth W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

Portsmouth W attack 3.29 + Fulham W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fulham W scores more

20%

level

16%

Portsmouth W scores more

65%

Portsmouth W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Portsmouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff