Fulham W 1–1 Maidenhead United W: Result & Stats

Fulham W

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maidenhead United W

10/13/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingMotspur Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fulham W50%

×Draw18%

Maidenhead United W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham WExpected goals in this matchMaidenhead United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

2.17

Fulham W

2.75

Maidenhead United W

2.17

Fulham W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.83

creates per match

1.00

3.33

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Fulham W

2.83

Maidenhead United W

1.00

allows per match

Fulham W

3.33

Maidenhead United W

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham W+0.00on par

Maidenhead United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham W ↓

Maidenhead United W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Fulham W or draw

69%

Fulham W or Maidenhead United W

82%

Draw or Maidenhead United W

50%

Winning margin

Fulham W wins by 2+

32%

Maidenhead United W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fulham W 1+ goals

93%

Fulham W 2+ goals

75%

Fulham W 3+ goals

51%

Maidenhead United W 1+ goals

89%

Maidenhead United W 2+ goals

64%

Maidenhead United W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Fulham W (draw refunded)

62%

Maidenhead United W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fulham W at home — creates 2.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Maidenhead United W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fulham W attack 2.83 + Maidenhead United W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.75

Maidenhead United W attack 1.00 + Fulham W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fulham W scores more

50%

level

18%

Maidenhead United W scores more

31%

Fulham W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fulham W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff