Fulham W 0–5 London City Lionesses W

Fulham W

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

London City Lionesses W

1/12/2025

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundCraven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fulham W39%

×Draw19%

London City Lionesses W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham WExpected goals in this matchLondon City Lionesses W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

2.52

Fulham W

2.42

London City Lionesses W

2.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.83

creates per match

1.71

3.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fulham W

2.83

London City Lionesses W

1.71

allows per match

Fulham W

3.33

London City Lionesses W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham W+0.00on par

London City Lionesses W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham W ↓

London City Lionesses W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Fulham W or draw

58%

Fulham W or London City Lionesses W

81%

Draw or London City Lionesses W

61%

Winning margin

Fulham W wins by 2+

22%

London City Lionesses W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Fulham W 1+ goals

91%

Fulham W 2+ goals

69%

Fulham W 3+ goals

43%

London City Lionesses W 1+ goals

92%

London City Lionesses W 2+ goals

71%

London City Lionesses W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Fulham W (draw refunded)

48%

London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fulham W at home — creates 2.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

London City Lionesses W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fulham W attack 2.83 + London City Lionesses W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

London City Lionesses W attack 1.71 + Fulham W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fulham W scores more

39%

level

19%

London City Lionesses W scores more

42%

London City Lionesses W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "London City Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Fulham W 0–5 London City Lionesses W

London City Lionesses W beat Fulham W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.

Fulham W vs London City Lionesses W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Fulham W 0–5 London City Lionesses W