Fulham 2–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

O. Aina 30'

B. De Cordova-Reid 26'

11/2/2020

Premier League · Round 7Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Fulham43%

×Draw27%

West Brom31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Fulham

1.40

West Brom

1.14

Fulham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 93 away

1.28

creates per match

0.83

1.45

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Fulham

1.28

West Brom

0.83

allows per match

Fulham

1.45

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

69%

Fulham or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

57%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

20%

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

75%

Fulham 2+ goals

41%

Fulham 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

68%

West Brom 2+ goals

32%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

58%

West Brom (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.45 · 92 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.28 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

West Brom attack 0.83 + Fulham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fulham scores more

43%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

31%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Mitrović

Fulham · F

7.7

Match Events

26'

B. De Cordova-Reid↳ A. Mitrović

30'

46'

47'

55'

56'

C. Robinson← Matheus Pereira

56'

R. Sawyers← J. Livermore

57'

Ademola Lookman

69'

Romaine Sawyers

70'

M. Phillips← F. Krovinović

81'

Bobby ReidGoal cancelled

83'

Harrison Reed

85'

Ivan Cavaleiro← B. De Cordova-Reid

90'

J. Bryan← A. Lookman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamWest

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots10

5Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target1

3Off Target4

4Blocked5

6Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

395Total Passes468

303Accurate Passes370

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4