Fulham 0–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Utd

12/20/2021

Championship · Round 23Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham45%

×Draw25%

Sheffield Utd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Fulham

1.54

Sheffield Utd

1.19

Fulham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 116 away

2.02

creates per match

1.25

1.13

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Fulham

2.02

Sheffield Utd

1.25

allows per match

Fulham

1.13

Sheffield Utd

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

71%

Fulham or Sheffield Utd

75%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

55%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

23%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

79%

Fulham 2+ goals

45%

Fulham 3+ goals

20%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

61%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fulham scores more

45%

level

25%

Sheffield Utd scores more

29%

Fulham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff