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Fulham vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Fulham
Fulham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Everton
Everton
1/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Fulham45%
×Draw26%
Everton29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham
1.50
Everton
1.16

Fulham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.15

allows per match

Fulham
1.17
Everton
1.75

finishing

Fulham+0.17scores more
Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fulham or draw
71%
Fulham or Everton
74%
Draw or Everton
55%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+
22%
Everton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals
78%
Fulham 2+ goals
44%
Fulham 3+ goals
19%
Everton 1+ goals
69%
Everton 2+ goals
32%
Everton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)
61%
Everton (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 32 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.24 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Everton attack 1.15 + Fulham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fulham scores more
45%
level
26%
Everton scores more
29%

Fulham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. TarkowskiEvertonEverton · D
8.3

Match Events

26'
João Palhinha
28'
Ben Godfrey
42'
Jarrad Branthwaite
46'
Rodrigo Muniz← R. Jiménez
75'
T. Ream← I. Diop
81'
Beto← D. Calvert-Lewin
81'
N. Patterson← A. Young
90'
L. Dobbin← A. Danjuma

Possession

69%Fulham

Shots

25Fulham

Pass accuracy

55%Fulham

Statistics

FulhamEverton
Overview
69%Possession31%
25Total Shots21
1.71Expected Goals (xG)2.15
15Corners6
6Fouls12
Shots
25Total Shots21
6On Target4
13Off Target11
6Blocked6
15Inside Box15
10Outside Box6
Passing
69%Possession31%
596Total Passes263
512Accurate Passes182
86%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Fulham vs Everton

Fulham and Everton drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 30, 2024.

Fulham controlled possession (69%) and registered 25 shots to 21.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.