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Fulham vs Derby — Championship 2018

Fulham
Fulham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Derby
Derby
T. Cairney 89'
A. Mitrović 40'
B. Reid 7'
11/26/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham54%
×Draw23%
Derby23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham
1.82
Derby
1.10

Fulham creates 65% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 142 away

creates per match

Fulham
2.02
Derby
1.07

allows per match

Fulham
1.13
Derby
1.63

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fulham or draw
77%
Fulham or Derby
77%
Draw or Derby
46%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+
31%
Derby wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals
84%
Fulham 2+ goals
54%
Fulham 3+ goals
27%
Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)
70%
Derby (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Derby away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

Derby attack 1.07 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fulham scores more
54%
level
23%
Derby scores more
23%

Fulham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. CairneyFulhamFulham · M
8.3

Match Events

7'
B. Reid↳ A. Kamara
34'
Ivan Cavaleiro
40'
A. Mitrović↳ Ivan Cavaleiro
45'
Craig Forsyth
54'
A. Knockaert← A. Kamara
59'
M. Whittaker← C. Martin
60'
J. Onomah← B. Reid
62'
K. Dowell← G. Evans
77'
J. Marriott← D. Holmes
80'
C. Christie← Ivan Cavaleiro
89'
T. Cairney↳ A. Mitrović
90'
Kieran Dowell

Possession

62%Fulham

Shots

16Fulham

Pass accuracy

53%Fulham

Statistics

FulhamDerby
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots8
6Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots8
7On Target0
4Off Target3
5Blocked5
8Inside Box4
8Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
659Total Passes387
574Accurate Passes303
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Fulham 3 – 0 Derby

Fulham beat Derby 3-0 in Championship on November 26, 2019.

Goals: B. Reid (7'), A. Mitrović (40'), T. Cairney (89').

Fulham controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.