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Fulham vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Fulham
Fulham
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Coventry
Coventry
B. De Cordova-Reid 82'
C. O'Hare 90+3'
V. Gyökeres 24'
T. Ream 20' (OG)
4/10/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham49%
×Draw24%
Coventry27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham
1.69
Coventry
1.21

Fulham creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 143 away

creates per match

Fulham
2.02
Coventry
1.28

allows per match

Fulham
1.13
Coventry
1.35

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fulham or draw
73%
Fulham or Coventry
76%
Draw or Coventry
51%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+
26%
Coventry wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals
82%
Fulham 2+ goals
50%
Fulham 3+ goals
24%
Coventry 1+ goals
70%
Coventry 2+ goals
34%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)
64%
Coventry (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Coventry defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.69

Coventry attack 1.28 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fulham scores more
49%
level
24%
Coventry scores more
27%

Fulham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
G. HamerCoventryCoventry · M
8.5

Match Events

20'
T. ReamOwn goal
24'
V. Gyökeres↳ C. O'Hare
42'
Fankaty Dabo
46'
B. De Cordova-Reid← N. Chalobah
61'
Ben Sheaf
65'
Simon Moore
74'
Rodrigo Muniz← N. Kebano
75'
J. Onomah← N. Williams
80'
Gustavo Hamer
81'
Harry Wilson
82'
B. De Cordova-Reid↳ J. Onomah
90+3'
C. O'Hare↳ G. Hamer

Possession

65%Fulham

Shots

27Fulham

Pass accuracy

54%Fulham

Statistics

FulhamCoventry
Overview
65%Possession35%
27Total Shots18
6Corners10
10Fouls12
Shots
27Total Shots18
7On Target5
14Off Target5
6Blocked8
17Inside Box13
10Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
547Total Passes292
466Accurate Passes208
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Championship: Fulham 1–3 Coventry

Coventry beat Fulham 3-1 in Championship on April 10, 2022.

Goals: T. Ream (20' o.g.), V. Gyökeres (24'), B. De Cordova-Reid (82'), C. O'Hare (90+3').

Fulham controlled possession (65%) and registered 27 shots to 18.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.