Fulham 6–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

6 – 2

HT: 5 – 2

Bristol City

N. Kebano 57', 31'

A. Mitrović 45+1', 41', 21'

F. Carvalho 36'

A. Semenyo 29', 7'

1/15/2022

Championship · Round 27Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham52%

×Draw24%

Bristol City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.14

Fulham

1.75

Bristol City

1.14

Fulham creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 188 away

2.02

creates per match

1.15

1.13

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Fulham

2.02

Bristol City

1.15

allows per match

Fulham

1.13

Bristol City

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

75%

Fulham or Bristol City

76%

Draw or Bristol City

48%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

28%

Bristol City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

83%

Fulham 2+ goals

52%

Fulham 3+ goals

25%

Bristol City 1+ goals

68%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

68%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fulham scores more

52%

level

24%

Bristol City scores more

25%

Fulham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Mitrović

Fulham · F

9.6

Match Events

7'

A. Semenyo↳ A. Scott

21'

A. Mitrović↳ H. Wilson

29'

A. Semenyo↳ A. King

31'

N. Kebano↳ A. Mitrović

36'

F. Carvalho↳ T. Ream

41'

A. Mitrović↳ T. Cairney

45+1'

A. Mitrović↳ T. Cairney

46'

Cameron Pring

50'

R. Atkinson← H. Massengo

50'

C. Martin← J. Dasilva

57'

N. Kebano↳ T. Adarabioyo

68'

Alex Scott

71'

B. De Cordova-Reid← N. Kebano

72'

N. Chalobah← T. Cairney

76'

T. Bakinson← C. ODowda

78'

Rodrigo Muniz← A. Mitrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamBristol

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots8

6Corners4

8Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target5

8Off Target3

2Blocked0

15Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

558Total Passes336

443Accurate Passes236

79%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides7