Fulham 0–3 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Aston Villa

T. Mings 48'

C. Hourihane 15'

J. Grealish 4'

9/28/2020

Premier League · Round 3Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Fulham44%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Fulham

1.44

Aston Villa

1.15

Fulham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.24

creates per match

1.14

1.17

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Fulham

1.24

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Fulham

1.17

Aston Villa

1.64

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Fulham+0.17scores more

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

70%

Fulham or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

56%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

76%

Fulham 2+ goals

42%

Fulham 3+ goals

18%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

68%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

32%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

59%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 32 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.24 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Fulham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fulham scores more

44%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

30%

Fulham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Hourihane

Aston Villa · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

J. Grealish↳ J. McGinn

11'

Bobby Reid

11'

Matt Targett

15'

C. Hourihane↳ J. McGinn

23'

39'

45'

47'

48'

T. Mings↳ C. Hourihane

57'

Aleksandar MitrovićGoal cancelled

58'

M. Le Marchand← M. Hector

59'

John McGinn

68'

Maxime Le Marchand

76'

J. Ramsey← C. Hourihane

78'

N. Kebano← B. De Cordova-Reid

84'

B. Traoré← Trézéguet

87'

M. Nakamba← Douglas Luiz

90'

Aboubakar Kamara

90'

Tyrone Mings

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamAston

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots12

5Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots12

3On Target5

9Off Target4

4Blocked3

11Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

538Total Passes302

461Accurate Passes213

86%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

6Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3