Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

T. Mings 21'

4/25/2023

Premier League · Round 33Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Aston Villa45%

×Draw26%

Fulham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.16

Aston Villa

1.51

Fulham

1.16

Aston Villa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

1.40

creates per match

1.13

1.19

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.40

Fulham

1.13

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.19

Fulham

1.62

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.32scores more

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

71%

Aston Villa or Fulham

74%

Draw or Fulham

55%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

23%

Fulham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

78%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

44%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

19%

Fulham 1+ goals

69%

Fulham 2+ goals

32%

Fulham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

61%

Fulham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 25 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.40 + Fulham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fulham attack 1.13 + Aston Villa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aston Villa scores more

45%

level

26%

Fulham scores more

29%

Aston Villa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

T. Mings

Aston Villa · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

B. De Cordova-Reid← H. Wilson

21'

T. Mings↳ J. McGinn

45+2'

Bobby Decordova-Reid

67'

Carlos Vinícius← M. Solomon

68'

Cédric Soares← K. Tete

68'

T. Cairney← Andreas Pereira

74'

Ashley Young

77'

L. Digne← Álex Moreno

77'

B. Traoré← J. Ramsey

79'

João Palhinha

83'

N. Kebano← H. Reed

85'

C. Chambers← A. Young

88'

Emiliano Martínez

89'

Bertrand Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonFulham

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots1

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.10

8Corners2

6Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots1

3On Target0

4Off Target1

7Blocked0

8Inside Box1

6Outside Box0

Passing

52%Possession48%

436Total Passes401

365Accurate Passes326

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5