Fulham United 2–0 Western Strikers: Result & Stats

Fulham United

FT

2 – 0

Western Strikers

9/18/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 22Adelaide Shores Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fulham United52%

×Draw23%

Western Strikers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham UnitedExpected goals in this matchWestern Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.18

Fulham United

1.80

Western Strikers

1.18

Fulham United creates 53% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 22 away

1.66

creates per match

1.05

1.31

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Fulham United

1.66

Western Strikers

1.05

allows per match

Fulham United

1.31

Western Strikers

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham United+0.00on par

Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham United ↓

Western Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fulham United or draw

75%

Fulham United or Western Strikers

77%

Draw or Western Strikers

48%

Winning margin

Fulham United wins by 2+

29%

Western Strikers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fulham United 1+ goals

83%

Fulham United 2+ goals

54%

Fulham United 3+ goals

27%

Western Strikers 1+ goals

69%

Western Strikers 2+ goals

33%

Western Strikers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fulham United (draw refunded)

67%

Western Strikers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 65 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham United attack 1.66 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.80

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Fulham United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fulham United scores more

52%

level

23%

Western Strikers scores more

25%

Fulham United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff