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Fulham United vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

Fulham United
Fulham United
FT
1 – 2
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
4/2/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 6Adelaide Shores Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fulham United55%
×Draw23%
Adelaide University22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham United
1.78
Adelaide University
1.02

Fulham United creates 75% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fulham United
1.66
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

Fulham United
1.31
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

Fulham United+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham United ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fulham United or draw
78%
Fulham United or Adelaide University
77%
Draw or Adelaide University
45%

Winning margin

Fulham United wins by 2+
31%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fulham United 1+ goals
83%
Fulham United 2+ goals
53%
Fulham United 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
64%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
27%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fulham United (draw refunded)
72%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 65 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham United attack 1.66 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Fulham United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fulham United scores more
55%
level
23%
Adelaide University scores more
22%

Fulham United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fulham United vs Adelaide University

Adelaide University beat Fulham United 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Adelaide Shores Football Centre in Adelaide.