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Fulham United vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

Fulham United
Fulham United
FT
1 – 1
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
5/14/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 10West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Fulham United55%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Hills Hawks23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham United
1.94
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.16

Fulham United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 22 away

creates per match

Fulham United
1.66
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

Fulham United
1.31
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

Fulham United+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham United ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fulham United or draw
77%
Fulham United or Adelaide Hills Hawks
78%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
45%

Winning margin

Fulham United wins by 2+
32%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fulham United 1+ goals
86%
Fulham United 2+ goals
58%
Fulham United 3+ goals
30%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
69%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
32%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fulham United (draw refunded)
71%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 65 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham United attack 1.66 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.94

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + Fulham United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fulham United scores more
55%
level
22%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
23%

Fulham United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Fulham United 1–1 Adelaide Hills Hawks

Fulham United and Adelaide Hills Hawks drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.