Fulham United 3–0 Adelaide Cobras: Result & Stats

Fulham United

FT

3 – 0

Adelaide Cobras

3/2/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 2West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fulham United48%

×Draw23%

Adelaide Cobras28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham UnitedExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Cobras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.31

Fulham United

1.78

Adelaide Cobras

1.31

Fulham United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 53 away

1.66

creates per match

1.30

1.31

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Fulham United

1.66

Adelaide Cobras

1.30

allows per match

Fulham United

1.31

Adelaide Cobras

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham United+0.00on par

Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham United ↓

Adelaide Cobras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fulham United or draw

72%

Fulham United or Adelaide Cobras

77%

Draw or Adelaide Cobras

52%

Winning margin

Fulham United wins by 2+

26%

Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fulham United 1+ goals

83%

Fulham United 2+ goals

53%

Fulham United 3+ goals

26%

Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals

73%

Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals

38%

Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fulham United (draw refunded)

63%

Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 65 matches

Adelaide Cobras away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham United attack 1.66 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.30 + Fulham United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fulham United scores more

48%

level

23%

Adelaide Cobras scores more

28%

Fulham United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff