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Adelaide Cobras vs Fulham United — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Fulham United
Fulham United
L. Fusco 90+1', 87'
A. Nicola 82' (OG)
K. Muneyuki 79'
L. Ikonomopoulos 42', 9'
F. Greco 33'
M. Cavallin 28'
6/7/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 13Pro Paint & Panel Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Adelaide Cobras37%
×Draw25%
Fulham United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Cobras
1.44
Fulham United
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

creates per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.41
Fulham United
1.32

allows per match

Adelaide Cobras
1.57
Fulham United
1.47

finishing

Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par
Fulham United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Cobras ↓

Fulham United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Adelaide Cobras or draw
62%
Adelaide Cobras or Fulham United
75%
Draw or Fulham United
63%

Winning margin

Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+
17%
Fulham United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals
76%
Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals
42%
Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals
18%
Fulham United 1+ goals
77%
Fulham United 2+ goals
42%
Fulham United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)
50%
Fulham United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Cobras at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

Fulham United away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.41 + Fulham United defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fulham United attack 1.32 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Adelaide Cobras scores more
37%
level
25%
Fulham United scores more
38%

Fulham United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Ikonomopoulos
28'
M. Cavallin
33'
F. Greco
42'
L. Ikonomopoulos
79'
K. Muneyuki
82'
A. NicolaOwn goal
87'
L. Fusco
90+1'
L. Fusco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Cobras vs Fulham United

Fulham United beat Adelaide Cobras 8-0 in South Australia State League 1 on June 7, 2025.

Goals: L. Ikonomopoulos (9', 42'), M. Cavallin (28'), F. Greco (33'), K. Muneyuki (79'), A. Nicola (82' o.g.), L. Fusco (87', 90+1').

The match was played at Pro Paint & Panel Oval in Plympton.