Fulham U18 0–1 West Ham United U18: Result & Stats

Fulham U18

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham United U18

R. Hargan 59'

2/18/2025

League #696 · South - 12Motspur Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fulham U1843%

×Draw19%

West Ham United U1838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham U18Expected goals in this matchWest Ham United U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

2.25

Fulham U18

2.38

West Ham United U18

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.83

creates per match

2.42

2.08

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Fulham U18

2.83

West Ham United U18

2.42

allows per match

Fulham U18

2.08

West Ham United U18

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham U18+0.00on par

West Ham United U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham U18 ↓

West Ham United U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Fulham U18 or draw

62%

Fulham U18 or West Ham United U18

81%

Draw or West Ham United U18

57%

Winning margin

Fulham U18 wins by 2+

25%

West Ham United U18 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fulham U18 1+ goals

91%

Fulham U18 2+ goals

68%

Fulham U18 3+ goals

42%

West Ham United U18 1+ goals

89%

West Ham United U18 2+ goals

65%

West Ham United U18 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Fulham U18 (draw refunded)

53%

West Ham United U18 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham U18 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

West Ham United U18 away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham U18 attack 2.83 + West Ham United U18 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.38

West Ham United U18 attack 2.42 + Fulham U18 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fulham U18 scores more

43%

level

19%

West Ham United U18 scores more

38%

Fulham U18 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

R. Hargan

64'

W. Sutton-Bangura← Q. Schutter

72'

T. Cavell← A. Batra

76'

E. Adiele

79'

L. Beckford← P. Fearon

87'

E. Adiele

89'

E. Sowunmi

90+2'

M. Balogun← J. Ajala

Fulham

West

1

5

3

2

4

6

10

8

▼

Fearon

7

⚽

Hargan

11

Landers

9

▼

1

5

4

6

▼

2

3

8

11

9

7

10

▼

Batra

Manager: A. Melloul

64'▲W. Sutton-Bangura←▼Q. Schutter

72'▲T. Cavell←▼A. Batra

Fulham U18 substitutes

14Sutton-Bangura16Cavell15Hall17De-Gale13Mayer

Manager: L. Coggin

79'▲L. Beckford←▼P. Fearon

90+2'▲M. Balogun←▼J. Ajala

West Ham United U18 substitutes

15Beckford16Balogun12Ebho14Unwin13Nightingale