Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fulgencio Yegros vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
FT
3 – 0
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
C. Herrera 41'
O. Romero 30' (pen)
R. Sanabria 17'
11/10/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 29Estadio Ypané (Ypané)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros41%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Iteno32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.33
Sportivo Iteno
1.13

Fulgencio Yegros creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 63 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.28
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
68%
Fulgencio Yegros or Sportivo Iteno
73%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
59%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
74%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
38%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
15%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
31%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
57%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
41%
level
27%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
32%

Fulgencio Yegros at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fulgencio Yegros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
R. Sanabria
27'
30'
O. RomeroPenalty
41'
C. Herrera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fulgencio Yegros vs Sportivo Iteno

Fulgencio Yegros beat Sportivo Iteno 3-0 in Division Intermedia on November 10, 2019.

Goals: R. Sanabria (17'), O. Romero (30' pen), C. Herrera (41').

The match was played at Estadio Ypané (Ypané).