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Fulgencio Yegros vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
FT
0 – 5
Resistencia
Resistencia
7/21/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Ypané (Ypané)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros32%
×Draw29%
Resistencia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.05
Resistencia
1.21

Resistencia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 83 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
60%
Fulgencio Yegros or Resistencia
71%
Draw or Resistencia
68%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
12%
Resistencia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
65%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
28%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
9%
Resistencia 1+ goals
70%
Resistencia 2+ goals
34%
Resistencia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
44%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
32%
level
29%
Resistencia scores more
40%

Resistencia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Fulgencio Yegros 0–5 Resistencia

Resistencia beat Fulgencio Yegros 5-0 in Division Intermedia on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ypané (Ypané).