Fulgencio Yegros 0–0 Independiente F.b.c.

Fulgencio Yegros

FT

0 – 0

Independiente F.b.c.

8/28/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros33%

×Draw29%

Independiente F.b.c.39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulgencio YegrosExpected goals in this matchIndependiente F.b.c.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.19

Fulgencio Yegros

1.07

Independiente F.b.c.

1.19

Independiente F.b.c. creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 99 away

0.85

creates per match

1.14

1.25

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros

0.85

Independiente F.b.c.

1.14

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros

1.25

Independiente F.b.c.

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Independiente F.b.c. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw

61%

Fulgencio Yegros or Independiente F.b.c.

71%

Draw or Independiente F.b.c.

67%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

13%

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

66%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

29%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

9%

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals

70%

Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals

33%

Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

46%

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Independiente F.b.c. away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.14 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

33%

level

29%

Independiente F.b.c. scores more

39%

Independiente F.b.c. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente F.b.c. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fulgencio Yegros vs Independiente F.b.c.

Fulgencio Yegros and Independiente F.b.c. drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros in Ñemby.

Fulgencio Yegros vs Independiente F.b.c. — Division Intermedia 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fulgencio Yegros vs Independiente F.b.c.