Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fulgencio Yegros vs General Diaz — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
FT
0 – 0
General Diaz
General Diaz
5/30/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 10Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros45%
×Draw29%
General Diaz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.28
General Diaz
0.92

Fulgencio Yegros creates 39% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
General Diaz
0.59

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
General Diaz
1.71

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

General Diaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
73%
Fulgencio Yegros or General Diaz
71%
Draw or General Diaz
55%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
20%
General Diaz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
72%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
37%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
14%
General Diaz 1+ goals
60%
General Diaz 2+ goals
23%
General Diaz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
63%
General Diaz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

General Diaz away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + General Diaz defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

General Diaz attack 0.59 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
45%
level
29%
General Diaz scores more
27%

Fulgencio Yegros at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fulgencio Yegros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Fulgencio Yegros 0–0 General Diaz

Fulgencio Yegros and General Diaz drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros in Ñemby.