Fulgencio Yegros 1–2 Deportivo Capiata

Fulgencio Yegros

FT

1 – 2

Deportivo Capiata

10/25/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 34Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros31%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Capiata38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulgencio YegrosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Capiata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.08

Fulgencio Yegros

0.95

Deportivo Capiata

1.08

Deportivo Capiata creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 38 away

0.85

creates per match

0.92

1.25

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros

0.85

Deportivo Capiata

0.92

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros

1.25

Deportivo Capiata

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Deportivo Capiata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw

62%

Fulgencio Yegros or Deportivo Capiata

70%

Draw or Deportivo Capiata

69%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

11%

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

61%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

25%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

7%

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

45%

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.92 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

31%

level

30%

Deportivo Capiata scores more

38%

Deportivo Capiata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff